Tarrytown Real Estate Market Forecast 2024

Tarrytown Real Estate Market Forecast 2024

  • The Weiss Group
  • 01/25/24

In a city well known for its eclectic and wonderfully unique neighborhoods, Tarrytown eschews Austin's typical boomtown vibe and “keep it weird” mantra in favor of low-key sophistication and high-end luxury.

Overlooking Lake Austin, situated immediately west of downtown and the historic monied Old West Austin enclaves of Bryker Woods, Old Enfield, and Pemberton Heights, Tarrytown boasts its own storied past, including cottage homes dating back more than a century dotted amongst its quiet tree-lined streets. One of its main draws is the neighborhood's bucolic aesthetics and resort town-like amenities, all within arms reach of the country's 10th largest city.

That "close, but not too close" setting is another reason affluent buyers, including plenty of Texas' most well-known A-listers, flock to this corner of Austin. You're within 10 minutes of downtown and the Texas State Capitol building, 15 minutes of the University of Texas - Austin, Zilker Park, and South Austin, and 20 minutes from Barton Creek and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.

As if a primary or second-home seeker or investor didn't need more convincing, Tarrytown is a showcase of remarkably diverse architecture. From contemporary to Spanish Revival, from Mid-Century Modern to Texas Hill Country Ranch, from luxe estates to the aforementioned 1920s-era cottages, few places in Austin feature such a range of styles.

No doubt, Tarrytown fits perfectly within the same stratosphere as Austin's toniest neighborhoods and is every bit as exceptional, even as residents prefer an understated approach to it all. Living here offers prestige without pretension and accessibility without excess. It is unsurprising then that even in the face of escalating interest rates and home prices, with the latter including some of the city's highest asking prices, potential buyers are always open to acquiring a Terrytown home.

But what will the high-end luxury market look like in West Austin in 2024? Below, we take a peek at where the market stands for buyers and sellers in Tarrytown and what's ahead in the coming year.

Market trends

Though Tarrytown is among those rarest of neighborhoods that maintain their appeal regardless of economic conditions, it's not immune from trends. That proves especially true when they involve historically low mortgage rates. Consider the banner year of 2021, when 162 homes sold in the immediate Tarrytown market amid rising home prices. Those sales were buoyed by mortgage rates, with a 12-month average of 2.96% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

However, Tarrytown sales fell the following year to 94 homes sold, a 42% drop in transactions. Unsurprisingly, the combination of tighter inventory and 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaging 5.34% for the year, with a peak of 7.08% in November 2022, forced many buyers into a holding pattern. Even with Austin's continued status as one of the country's top relocation destinations, there was too much uncertainty.

For 2023, it was clear that buyers with means decided whatever risk existed buying at the top of the market; it's very much worth the reward of a home in Tarrytown. Preliminary numbers show 105 homes changing ownership in 2023. It's an impressive 11% increase from the year prior, considering mortgage rates averaged 6.81% for the year and reached a peak of 7.79% in October — a 23-year high.

Forecast for 2024

Since the beginning of 2021, Tarrytown home values have increased by 50%, outpacing the whole of Austin by 25%. Entering 2024, the current median list price of a home between MoPac Expressway and Lake Austin is $2.1 million, representing some of the city's priciest real estate. Yet demand for this section of West Austin remains high, with plenty of opportunities for buyers and sellers to land financially beneficial transactions.

Additionally, mortgage rates have leveled off with a four-week average of 6.64% entering 2024. Predictions suggest a short-lived rise near or slightly above 7% in the year's first quarter, followed by a gradual leveling off as the year progresses. By year's end, rates could be in the 6.25% to 6.5% range, with some analysts even forecasting 6%. Despite the ongoing high property prices, driven by limited inventory due to slow construction rates and homeowners retaining their low-rate mortgages, the housing market in Tarrytown is expected to be more accessible as the year advances.

Buyer insights

For buyers, it's all about exercising patience when seeking the right opportunities. Terrytown may be among the most expensive of Austin enclaves, but the variety of homes extends well beyond the architecture. Foremost, pricing for single-family homes ranges from $850,000 to more than $5.5 million. The area's impressive collection of condos and townhomes will impress those craving luxurious, low-maintenance living.

With overall inventory slightly improved from prior months, there is time to be selective early in 2024 before the spring/summer buying season heats up. There's potential to strike a good deal with motivated sellers early in 2024, then renegotiate your interest rate once they start to fall.

Seller insights

If you're considering listing a current Tarrytown home for sale in 2024, your biggest challenge is timing. If you must sell early, prepare for a more systematic listing process. Currently, Tarrytown sits around five months of inventory, which means it's nearing balanced market status for the first time in several years. Though sellers still have the upper hand with historically low levels of available homes, the first half of 2024 will give buyers more time to be selective and value-driven in their property searches.

Beyond that, connecting your home with the right buyer will boost your chances of a highly lucrative sale. Understanding the profile of your home's ideal buyer and marketing your listing to their wants and needs will help justify the higher prices and elevated mortgage rates, especially for those relocating from outside of Austin.

Ready to buy or sell Tarrytown real estate?

If you're ready to learn more about Tarrytown, West Austin, or any other luxury Austin neighborhood, contact Dustin Weiss and The Weiss Group today. Dustin's experience and expertise will help you facilitate your Austin luxury home transaction in one of the country's most dynamic and rewarding residential real estate markets.


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